Re: Euro Vote - Are you In or Out?

[GraemeW]

I am also undecided but erring on voting to stay. The issues as I see it...

- Finances.  This is not a net sum of what we pay in minus what we get back in grants or subsidies. Rather it's the access to the biggest single market or 500 million plus.  The value of that to UK businesses is far higher than what we pay to be in the "club". I have not seen a figure for this, but it may emerge in the next few months, and even if it's not that impressive, there's the opportunities for UK businesses that we have not yet exploited.  This has to be the biggest advantage of being in the EU? 

Jobs:  see finances above.  This translates into jobs.  Whether it's the quoted 3 million, I don't know, but it will be a positive number, even if we had a trade deal from outside the EU, being inside with totally free access has to mean easier trade and therefore more jobs and business.  Someone else mentioned EU Regulation probably has a negative impact mostly on smaller businesses, and therefore having a constraining impact on job creation in some sectors.  I still think the balance is positive in our favour, but would like to see some objective data on this if possible.

Regulation:  to be in the EU and have a level playing field you need this to be fair to all businesses in that market, so regulation is a good thing, but, perhaps the EU has gone too far.  We can all quote ridiculous examples. Again on balance probably still a positive?

Immigration:  I am an immigrant.  English mother, German father, born and bred in Africa, but lived most of my life here in the UK.  From what I have seen immigration has been hugely positive to the Uk. It is a far richer county in all aspects not just financially.  Most immigrants are hard working and have not been a financial burden on the country. They have paid their way.  However some point out that infrastructure is taking some strain.  My wife's a teacher and I hear about it daily.  So perhaps it should be "braked" a little?  There has to be a limit as to what the country can accommodate? Cameron's deal will do little to slow immigration from Eu. I think part of the issue is that governments in the UK of all colours have spectacularly failed to plan for and deliver good infrastructure and services for a dynamic and growing economy, and continue to fail in spite of the current realities.  As petrol heads we can all identify with this wrt our roads?  So we can't blame immigrants entirely for this problem.

Reform and change:  This is one area I think seriously detracts from the argument to stay in the EU.  Even the most europhile will acknowledge that the EU needs to reform, but it's doing so too slowly and in a world where change is happening quicker than the EU can reform.  Most of its structures are bloated and bureaucratic and rely on building consensus for change across too wide a group of countries.  This means painfully slow.  Reform is needed in all areas of policy, regulation, and democratic structures.  I don't think I've heard any talk about how an (unlikely?) collapse of the EU structure would impact the Uk, given all the challenges it has.  The counter to this, is at least we have a group of people (EU) talking with each other trying to solve common problems, even if we don't necessarily like the outcome or the way it's done?  Are you glass half empty or glass half full?

There are many other pluses and minuses that affect all of us on a daily basis.  Again on balance I think the stay just pips the leave.  I just wish that if I vote to stay it's not because it's the least worst option.  I would like some more compelling and positive arguments from both campaigns.  The leave campaigns main reasons to leave would not change as these would still be the price of a trade deal with the EU.  Despite all of the above I am also intrigued as to what life would be like outside of the EU, as that would offer some new opportunities?

[deepdiver]

Still no actual facts but lots of this may happen or that may happen.

The only figure iv seen is it cost us 50 million pound a day to be a member of the EU. Thats 350 million a week, 1.4 billion a month, or 365 * 50 = 18.250 billion pounds. That comes from TAX given straight to the EU.

I worked all over the world and with out doubt we are one of the most generous countries on the planet yet we still have Homeless people, Old people who can't afford heating, Young people with out jobs. Would leaving the EU cure any of that? probably not i fear, but staying has not cured it either.

With Immigration we need to control our borders, at the moment it would appear that the levels coming into the UK are uncontrollable. People will always want to come here,we have a fantastic country. Imagine how bad it would be if we had better weather. if you want to look at a case for uncontrolled immigration look no further than the Netherlands.

People are talking a lot about 10years of uncertainty, Cant see it my self, we are so inter linked getting out of that mess will take some doing but what will change while its going on NOTHING. why would it. the status quo would stay the same, while the EU MPs are hanging onto their jobs and milking it for all its worth.

Trade deals would get better, because if they didn't their business would fail and people would be come more accountable.

Security were still a member of NATO and the cooperation between police forces Interpol(1923) was around long before the EU. just as a reminder it was the Intervention of NATO that helped bring the Balkens war to a Finnish not the EU. A toothless, spineless jelly fish. we will impose sanctions. They were at war its already as bad as it gets.

Cultural différences, in most cases i would welcome it. it makes us all better people. but its a two way street. your more than welcome to come here and practice what ever religion you like, but please leave your ideas of trying to change the indigenous populations thoughts at the border, it not the 11th century.  we don't do that any more. so get with the program. And i don't believe in the magic man.

bring it on all view welcome. a partial rant over. ill get me coat.

G.

[Bruce Fielding]

[quote="RS4 George"]
Still no actual facts but lots of this may happen or that may happen.
[/quote]

I think the reason that there are so few facts is that there are so many, depending on the agenda, so people can choose which ones to believe (or not). And that's why the referendum is happening. The truthful answer to most of the questions raised is 'nobody knows'. So it's mostly going to have to be about 'gut feeling'.

Opinions are going to be what decides this, not facts. After all, if there was one killer fact, then we wouldn't be having a referendum. We'd have our government making a decision, not us.

And that's why discussion like this is so important. People stating opinions which may or may not sway others are going to be the only way we reach a solution.

So should we stay or should we go? If we go there could be trouble. If we stay it could be double. The truth is that whether we stay or go, life will go on, and change is the only certainty there is.

[Bruce Fielding]

Oh, and can I just say that I LOVE debates like this on the Atomclub forum. We have so many intelligent, well-informed owners, that you would be unlikely to get this quality or level of discussion on any other forum.

[ross]

One thing you can put money on is that The Clash will be getting a sh1t load of royalties running up to June 23rd!

[autobackup]

Bruce

I would wholeheartedly endorse the sentiments you expressed in your post - my only hope is that, whichever way the UK electorate decide, that we do not live to regret it in the long run?

I really hope that, given the increasingly bitter arguments daily between the 'inners' & 'outers' that the fabric of British society isn't irretrievably destroyed in the wake of this referendum!!

PC

[GraemeW]

[quote="RS4 George"]

The only figure iv seen is it cost us 50 million pound a day to be a member of the EU. Thats 350 million a week, 1.4 billion a month, or 365 * 50 = 18.250 billion pounds. That comes from TAX given straight to the EU.

[/quote]

Yes that's a s**t load of money.  A billion is a very large number. Did you know a billion seconds ago was 1986?  A billion minutes ago was just after Jesus walked this earth.  A billion days ago human beings hadn't yet evolved. 

The UK government will be spending about £64 billion a month this year, so in context EU budget is about 2% of that spend. UK GDP last year was about £2.2 trillion. Probably a good wack of that was due to EU? 

[deepdiver]

Ok Digger,   

" UK GDP last year was about £2.2 trillion. Probably a good wack of that was due to EU?".

lets say for arguments sake that 60%-70% of that was the EU (iv no idea at the moment what the actually figure is). Are you saying that we would loose all that trade, or a good chunk of it. I don't think we would. I think they would be bending over back wards to maintain it, this false Idea that all that trade would just stop is wrong.
the EU prevents us from opening up our own trade deals it doesn't like it, god forbid we get our bananas from a none European source.
Both China and the USA would encourage us to remain in the EU, why because it can't be arsed to set up 28 separate deals, a fair point really from their point of view. 

G.
 

[GraemeW]

[quote="autobackup"]
Bruce

I would wholeheartedly endorse the sentiments you expressed in your post - my only hope is that, whichever way the UK electorate decide, that we do not live to regret it in the long run?

I really hope that, given the increasingly bitter arguments daily between the 'inners' & 'outers' that the fabric of British society isn't irretrievably destroyed in the wake of this referendum!!
[/quote]

Yes absolutely!  And we are all friends here aren't we?  After the 23 June I don't want to have to decide whether I join the European Areil Atom owners club, or the Independent Areil Atom owners club 

[deepdiver]

[quote="Digger"]
[quote="autobackup"]
Bruce

I would wholeheartedly endorse the sentiments you expressed in your post - my only hope is that, whichever way the UK electorate decide, that we do not live to regret it in the long run?

I really hope that, given the increasingly bitter arguments daily between the 'inners' & 'outers' that the fabric of British society isn't irretrievably destroyed in the wake of this referendum!!
[/quote]

Yes absolutely!  And we are all friends here aren't we?  After the 23 June I don't want to have to decide whether I join the European Areil Atom owners club, or the Independent Areil Atom owners club 
[/quote]

CLASS.

[GraemeW]

Oops sorry spelt Ariel wrong!!!! That is a sin.  Tom please don't cancel my order

[GraemeW]

[quote="RS4 George"]
Ok Digger,   

" UK GDP last year was about £2.2 trillion. Probably a good wack of that was due to EU?".

lets say for arguments sake that 60%-70% of that was the EU (iv no idea at the moment what the actually figure is). Are you saying that we would loose all that trade, or a good chunk of it. I don't think we would. I think they would be bending over back wards to maintain it, this false Idea that all that trade would just stop is wrong.
the EU prevents us from opening up our own trade deals it doesn't like it, god forbid we get our bananas from a none European source.
Both China and the USA would encourage us to remain in the EU, why because it can't be arsed to set up 28 separate deals, a fair point really from their point of view. 

G.

[/quote]

George yes I agree.  Trade could be the same or less or more, we just don't know.  I was making the assumption that being in, makes it easier to trade, and therefore means more trade, but don't know how much and if it's worth the price of some of the negatives.  It's why I am still undecided.  I hope that we can get some informed and positive information about all of this from the politicians, rather than a slanging match full of hype.  I suspect we will not, so we will vote with gut instinct as Bruce suggests

[deepdiver]

Just also putting this out their:-

lets say for arguments sake we vote to remain in the EU.

Would the government not take that as  a green light for further integration into the union.
Well you voted to remain so that means you want more EU,  and become well and truly integrated.

Their for the deal we got last week before all this kicked of doesn't matter.

G.

[GraemeW]

Another way of looking at the financials is if our £2.2 trillion GDP reduces by more than aprox one percent which is £20 billion (the amount we pay into the European Union each year),  as a result of not being in the EU, then it's a bad deal to leave?

Trouble is there are too many other variables. 

Maybe someone can check my numbers.  I was educated in the colonies. 

[Peter255]

If we leave and it doesn't work out could we re-join? That's an interesting question. Do they want us in the EU or not? If so why block us re-joining in future? To punish previous mistakes? Would they offer us a worse deal? IMO Its always just a negotiation at the time depending on the economics of each party. If the EU is so great why not let people try to go it alone, and come back in future (as the door is always open). Surely we can be left to try something different. If the EU is worth the cost we will want to come back. Surely choice is fair and good for all.

Its all unknown. Who can possibly predict how we could benefit / suffer from leaving.

All I keep coming back to is how much it costs us each year, and how little we receive. That's the only thing we know for sure. Leaving will save us a LOT or money directly. I could costs us some money too, but no one knows how much. BUT that's NOT a reason to not change. Fear of the unknown is a classic issue that stifles change in so many environments.

Another way to look at it is we pay a LOT to be a member of the club, but we cannot even remember what it was like to be a non-member (let alone quantify cost against the benefit).

I vote to go. Spend the cash we save on the NHS, and better border controls.