Ariel.Club Forum

The links below has some apposite ideas about this subject

Some aspects make interesting reading!

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/category/britain-and-the-eu/

http://openeurope.org.uk/

PC

Completely agree Ross,
The more I hear French ministers warning us of releasing floods of potential immigrants to enter Britain or other scare mongering just increases my resistance to staying in.

Less emotionally: I'm not clever enough to understand all the issues let alone to predict the likely outcomes of staying or leaving. To me this is one of those huge questions where making the right decision is impossible. So it will fall to the government to make our decision right.

Uh oh!

S.

I think Cameron going round Europe getting various Euro prime ministers to 'warn' us about leaving like he's just done with Hollande is likely to backfire on him though.

I don't reckon your average Brit really likes being warned about anything by 'jonny foreigner' and is likely to vote to leave just to give them 'two fingers'.

Same with BMW sending letters to its employees - hearing stuff like that really pisses me off but I guess this kind of things is inevitable.

[quote="Ross McWilliam"]
I wish the two sides would cut all the fear generating PR crap though - I think it really turns voters off.
[/quote]

Completely agree.

But fear is what sells newspapers, and that fear works is what terrorists have taught governments.

I imagine it's very hard to justify it either way on economics alone.

Personally I find it hard to believe that the country will have loads of spare cash to spend directly as a result of leaving the EU.

I think the question really comes down to whether you think the UK will be a better place to live being an independent country vs part of of a much larger club (in which we are one of the 'big hitters').

I wish the two sides would cut all the fear generating PR crap though - I think it really turns voters off.

Do the 'stay' side really have so little confidence in our country that they believe all their own fear generating PR?

[quote="Peter255"]
If we leave and it doesn't work out could we re-join? That's an interesting question. Do they want us in the EU or not? If so why block us re-joining in future? To punish previous mistakes? Would they offer us a worse deal? IMO Its always just a negotiation at the time depending on the economics of each party. If the EU is so great why not let people try to go it alone, and come back in future (as the door is always open). Surely we can be left to try something different. If the EU is worth the cost we will want to come back. Surely choice is fair and good for all.

Its all unknown. Who can possibly predict how we could benefit / suffer from leaving.

All I keep coming back to is how much it costs us each year, and how little we receive. That's the only thing we know for sure. Leaving will save us a LOT or money directly. I could costs us some money too, but no one knows how much. BUT that's NOT a reason to not change. Fear of the unknown is a classic issue that stifles change in so many environments.

Another way to look at it is we pay a LOT to be a member of the club, but we cannot even remember what it was like to be a non-member (let alone quantify cost against the benefit).

I vote to go. Spend the cash we save on the NHS, and better border controls.
[/quote]

Peter, see above.  We get more financially than we put in.  Otherwise why would anyone support us being in the EU.  You have to also count the value of the business that UK companies get from free unfettered access to the EU.  The question is, is this worth it for the negatives? 

I was living and working in Portugal when they joined the EU in the 80s. The transformation was amazing in terms of the number of Uk companies that turned up there, expanding their businesses, and therefore increased corporation tax paid to the UK govenrnment.

If we leave and it doesn't work out could we re-join? That's an interesting question. Do they want us in the EU or not? If so why block us re-joining in future? To punish previous mistakes? Would they offer us a worse deal? IMO Its always just a negotiation at the time depending on the economics of each party. If the EU is so great why not let people try to go it alone, and come back in future (as the door is always open). Surely we can be left to try something different. If the EU is worth the cost we will want to come back. Surely choice is fair and good for all.

Its all unknown. Who can possibly predict how we could benefit / suffer from leaving.

All I keep coming back to is how much it costs us each year, and how little we receive. That's the only thing we know for sure. Leaving will save us a LOT or money directly. I could costs us some money too, but no one knows how much. BUT that's NOT a reason to not change. Fear of the unknown is a classic issue that stifles change in so many environments.

Another way to look at it is we pay a LOT to be a member of the club, but we cannot even remember what it was like to be a non-member (let alone quantify cost against the benefit).

I vote to go. Spend the cash we save on the NHS, and better border controls.

Another way of looking at the financials is if our £2.2 trillion GDP reduces by more than aprox one percent which is £20 billion (the amount we pay into the European Union each year),  as a result of not being in the EU, then it's a bad deal to leave?

Trouble is there are too many other variables. 

Maybe someone can check my numbers.  I was educated in the colonies. 

Just also putting this out their:-

lets say for arguments sake we vote to remain in the EU.

Would the government not take that as  a green light for further integration into the union.
Well you voted to remain so that means you want more EU,  and become well and truly integrated.

Their for the deal we got last week before all this kicked of doesn't matter.

G.

[quote="RS4 George"]
Ok Digger,   

" UK GDP last year was about £2.2 trillion. Probably a good wack of that was due to EU?".

lets say for arguments sake that 60%-70% of that was the EU (iv no idea at the moment what the actually figure is). Are you saying that we would loose all that trade, or a good chunk of it. I don't think we would. I think they would be bending over back wards to maintain it, this false Idea that all that trade would just stop is wrong.
the EU prevents us from opening up our own trade deals it doesn't like it, god forbid we get our bananas from a none European source.
Both China and the USA would encourage us to remain in the EU, why because it can't be arsed to set up 28 separate deals, a fair point really from their point of view. 

G.

[/quote]

George yes I agree.  Trade could be the same or less or more, we just don't know.  I was making the assumption that being in, makes it easier to trade, and therefore means more trade, but don't know how much and if it's worth the price of some of the negatives.  It's why I am still undecided.  I hope that we can get some informed and positive information about all of this from the politicians, rather than a slanging match full of hype.  I suspect we will not, so we will vote with gut instinct as Bruce suggests

Oops sorry spelt Ariel wrong!!!! That is a sin.  Tom please don't cancel my order

[quote="Digger"]
[quote="autobackup"]
Bruce

I would wholeheartedly endorse the sentiments you expressed in your post - my only hope is that, whichever way the UK electorate decide, that we do not live to regret it in the long run?

I really hope that, given the increasingly bitter arguments daily between the 'inners' & 'outers' that the fabric of British society isn't irretrievably destroyed in the wake of this referendum!!
[/quote]

Yes absolutely!  And we are all friends here aren't we?  After the 23 June I don't want to have to decide whether I join the European Areil Atom owners club, or the Independent Areil Atom owners club 
[/quote]

CLASS.

[quote="autobackup"]
Bruce

I would wholeheartedly endorse the sentiments you expressed in your post - my only hope is that, whichever way the UK electorate decide, that we do not live to regret it in the long run?

I really hope that, given the increasingly bitter arguments daily between the 'inners' & 'outers' that the fabric of British society isn't irretrievably destroyed in the wake of this referendum!!
[/quote]

Yes absolutely!  And we are all friends here aren't we?  After the 23 June I don't want to have to decide whether I join the European Areil Atom owners club, or the Independent Areil Atom owners club 

Ok Digger,   

" UK GDP last year was about £2.2 trillion. Probably a good wack of that was due to EU?".

lets say for arguments sake that 60%-70% of that was the EU (iv no idea at the moment what the actually figure is). Are you saying that we would loose all that trade, or a good chunk of it. I don't think we would. I think they would be bending over back wards to maintain it, this false Idea that all that trade would just stop is wrong.
the EU prevents us from opening up our own trade deals it doesn't like it, god forbid we get our bananas from a none European source.
Both China and the USA would encourage us to remain in the EU, why because it can't be arsed to set up 28 separate deals, a fair point really from their point of view. 

G.
 

[quote="RS4 George"]

The only figure iv seen is it cost us 50 million pound a day to be a member of the EU. Thats 350 million a week, 1.4 billion a month, or 365 * 50 = 18.250 billion pounds. That comes from TAX given straight to the EU.

[/quote]

Yes that's a s**t load of money.  A billion is a very large number. Did you know a billion seconds ago was 1986?  A billion minutes ago was just after Jesus walked this earth.  A billion days ago human beings hadn't yet evolved. 

The UK government will be spending about £64 billion a month this year, so in context EU budget is about 2% of that spend. UK GDP last year was about £2.2 trillion. Probably a good wack of that was due to EU?